Spatial–temporal prediction model for land cover of the rural–urban continuum axis between Ar-Riyadh and Al-Kharj cities in KSA in the year of 2030 using the integration of CA–Markov model, GIS-MCA, and AHP

Abstract The spatiotemporal analysis of land use/land cover change and monitoring, modeling, forecasting the future uses are considered challenges facing planners decision-makers in developing countries. These increased neighborhood areas surrounding large cities, which known as “rural–urban continuum”. have become preferred for resettlement most urban residents. objectives present study were to (1) monitor rural–urban continuum axis between Ar-Riyadh Al-Kharj cities during period 1988–2020, (2) simulate growth up year 2030 using Cellular Automated Markov Model (CA-Markov), (3) improve ability CA-Markov predict by integrating multi-criteria based on geographic information systems (GIS-MCA) analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. results revealed changes cities. About 60 km 2 agricultural has been lost, with an average annual decrease . industrial rate 4%. There five categories spatial suitability, ranging 32 86%, 70% or higher is recommended percentage uses. use was likely 2030, it recorded increase 27.1 over 2020.